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Project Time Estimates: Over the years I have found a nearly foolproof technique for software project estimation. By foolproof, I mean that it doesn't always fail. Well it worked once. Nearly once. Anyway, my software project estimation technique is to simply find the most knowledgeable developer and ask him, How long is this going to take? Get his answer and adjust it slightly for the well know developer optimism effect. This adjustment is very simple: take the developer estimate, double it and move to the next higher unit of time. Three hours? Six days. Couple of days? Two weeks. Five weeks? Ten months.

     2006-04-21 from Russ Olsen

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If you torture the data enough, it will confess.

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