Project Time Estimates: Over the years I have found a nearly foolproof technique for software project estimation. By foolproof, I mean that it doesn't always fail. Well it worked once. Nearly once. Anyway, my software project estimation technique is to simply find the most knowledgeable developer and ask him, How long is this going to take? Get his answer and adjust it slightly for the well know developer optimism effect. This adjustment is very simple: take the developer estimate, double it and move to the next higher unit of time. Three hours? Six days. Couple of days? Two weeks. Five weeks? Ten months.
2006-04-21 from Russ Olsen
focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.